India’s agricultural exports continue to deliver strong performance this year, even as the US imposes high tariffs under the Trump administration. Supportive monsoons, rising production, policy adjustments, and expansion into new international markets have kept export growth steady.

Farm Exports Grow Faster Than Total Exports

Latest government data shows India’s farm export value reached $25.9 billion from April to September 2025, marking an 8.8% rise compared to the $23.8 billion recorded last year during the same period.

This performance is better than the 2.9% growth seen in India’s overall merchandise exports.
In 2024–25, agricultural shipments also increased by 6.4%, while total exports of goods saw almost zero growth.

Key Factors Behind the Growth

1. Strong Performance of Major Export Items

The biggest contributors to this year’s growth include:

• Non-basmati rice

• Buffalo meat

• Marine products

• Coffee

• Fruits and vegetables

2. Non-Basmati Rice Exports Rebound

Exports of non-basmati rice bounced back after the government eased restrictions that were earlier imposed to control food inflation. With good monsoons, higher output, and large government stocks, shipments may overtake last year’s $6.5 billion record.

3. Buffalo Meat Exports Increase

Buffalo meat exports are expected to surpass the previous high of $4.8 billion, backed by stable demand across global markets.

4. Marine Exports Stay Strong Despite US Tariffs

Even with a US tariff rate exceeding 58%, India’s seafood exports rose from $3.4 billion to $4 billion in April–September 2025.
Exporters have successfully diverted shipments to China, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, the EU, and Canada, reducing their dependence on the US market.

5. Coffee Exports Hit Record Levels

India’s coffee exports have grown sharply, driven by higher global prices caused by low international stock levels—the lowest in 25 years. Exports are expected to cross $2 billion this fiscal.

6. Fruits and Vegetables Maintain Steady Growth

Shipments of both fresh and processed fruits & vegetables continue to rise, extending the positive trend seen over recent years.

A Decade of Ups and Downs in Farm Exports

India’s farm exports have seen major fluctuations in the past decade—dropping from $43.3 billion in 2013–14 to $32.8 billion in 2015–16, then climbing back to $53.2 billion in 2022–23.

These shifts largely reflect movements in global food prices.
The FAO Food Price Index fell sharply after 2013, stayed low until 2019–20, and then surged after the Russia–Ukraine conflict. As prices have eased again, India’s export revenue has also moderated.

Government export bans on wheat, sugar, rice, onions, and de-oiled rice bran—implemented to control domestic inflation—also limited export volumes in recent years.

What Will Shape Future Export Trends?

1. Global Food Prices

The FAO Index averaged 126.4 points in October 2025, far below the record 2022 levels.
Weak prices in categories like cereals and sugar may impact India’s farm export earnings in the coming months.

2. US Tariff Impact

Exports to the US fell sharply in September, including:

• Marine products: –26.9%

• Spices: –45.1%

• Basmati rice: –17.8%

This shows that tariffs are beginning to affect shipments more strongly.

However, there is optimism: reports suggest that a US–India trade agreement may be finalized by the end of the year.
President Trump has also withdrawn tariffs on spices, coffee, tea, and fresh fruits, offering relief to Indian exporters.

Farm Imports Also Increase

India’s farm imports rose 5.9% in April–September 2025, slightly higher than the 4.5% growth in total imports.

Main items India imports include:

1. Vegetable Oils

Vegetable oil imports rose 13.5% and may approach the $20.8 billion record from 2022–23.

2. Pulses

Pulses imports have dropped because of a strong domestic harvest and the return of import duties that were removed during the high-inflation period.

3. Fresh Fruits

India imported fresh fruits worth over $3 billion in 2024–25.
The US supplied half of India’s fruit imports during April–September 2025, mainly almonds, pistachios, walnuts, and other dry fruits.

4. Raw Cotton

India has shifted from exporting cotton to importing it, with imports expected to cross $1.5 billion this year due to low domestic production and the lack of new technology after Bt cotton.

Conclusion

Despite global challenges, weakening food prices, and US tariffs, India’s agricultural exports continue to show resilience. Strong production, rising global demand outside the US, and effective market diversification have positioned India as a leading agricultural supplier in the world market.